Although a recently published Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) study indicates that obesity rates have leveled off in the United States, a new study suggests that the current pause in increasing obesity may only be temporary.

In fact, clinical researchers from Duke University now believe that obesity rates will rise steadily over the course of the next 20 years, and predict that by 2030 obesity could impact 42% of the United States population.

In order for an individual to be considered obese, they must technically have a body mass index (BMI) value that is in excess of 30. In addition, the body mass index range of values used to define an individual that is considered “overweight” is between 25 and 30.

The Rise in United States Obesity Rate is Cause for Concern

The Duke University researchers said their prediction means that 32 million additional individuals will become obese by 2030. Today, obesity affects roughly 34% of U.S. adults and 17% of U.S. children.

The researchers also predict a sharp increase in the number of Americans who can be classified as severely obese, otherwise known as being overweight by at least 80 pounds. While just 5% of the American population is classified this way today, that figure is expected to reach at least 11% by 2030.

At Least it’s Not 50%…

Just last August, researchers from Columbia University predicted that 50% of the U.S. population would be obese by 2030. However, the Duke researchers said that this study’s predictions were inflated due to the sharp increases observed in obesity rates over the past few decades. The Duke study was based on more recent data, particularly data indicating that rising obesity rates have been curbed to some extent in recent years.

Plenty of Variables to Consider

In order to come to their conclusions, the Duke researchers identified and accounted for several variables that could predict changes in obesity rates, including:

• Changes in regional demographics

• Changes in grocery prices

• Changes in fast food prices

• Changes in the total number of fast food restaurants

The researchers made certain assumptions when modeling their predictions of these variables, such as that an increase in the total number of fast food restaurants would lead more people to consume fast food more often, thereby increasing obesity rates. The researchers admitted that their predictions could be wrong depending on the accuracy of these assumptions.

Obesity in the United States: The Bottom Line

Researchers from Duke University have completed a study finding that up to 42% of the United States population will be considered obese by the year 2030. Such a drastic increase could have major public health repercussions, including an increase in heart disease, cancer, diabetes and stroke rates.

The researchers presented their findings yesterday in Washington, D.C. at the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s Weight of the Nation Conference.